French nuclear rhetoric has outpaced the nations capabilities

On March 2, French President Emmanuel Macron delivered a long-anticipated speech outlining the republic's nuclear strategy. The setting was carefully chosen to reinforce the theme: Macron stood before the ballistic missile submarine Le Temeraire, currently undergoing repairs and modernization.

Expectations surrounding the address were high. For months, Paris and its Western European partners had discussed the idea of a "pan-European nuclear deterrent," and many observers assumed the president would announce concrete steps toward such a project.

While Macron did address cooperation with those allies, the most striking announcement concerned France itself. The president declared that Paris intends to increase the size of its nuclear arsenal. At the same time, however, France will no longer disclose the exact size of that arsenal. As a result, the scale of the proposed expansion remains unclear.

The official explanation for this new secrecy is a desire to "prevent speculation." This reasoning is somewhat paradoxical. When official information disappears, speculation inevitably becomes the only basis for public discussion. A more plausible explanation is that Paris wants to conceal the limited scale of any expansion in the coming years. The reality is that France currently has no practical means of significantly increasing the number of deployed delivery systems.

France's nuclear deterrent rests on two components. The first consists of four Triomphant-class ballistic missile submarines, each capable of carrying 16 M51 intercontinental ballistic missiles. The second is the airborne component: Rafale fighter jets equipped to carry ASMPA supersonic nuclear cruise missiles.

The exact number of these air-launched missiles is not publicly known, though estimates suggest there are roughly 40 in total, including those used for testing and training.

ASMPA missiles have not been produced for some time. Instead, existing missiles have been upgraded to the ASMPA-R variant, which features a modernized warhead. Production of submarine-launched M51 missiles continues, and deployment of the newer M51.3 modification - with improved range and missile-defense penetration capabilities - has begun.

Yet none of this increases the number of launch platforms. France cannot simply conjure additional submarines or aircraft. The fleet remains fixed, and so does the number of deployed launchers.

In the near term, the only way France could increase the number of deployed warheads would be by loading more of them onto existing submarine missiles. At present, many missiles carry fewer warheads than their maximum capacity. This configuration improves range and helps overcome missile defense systems. Such flexibility is common among nuclear powers, including Russia and the United States. For strikes against individual targets, it is often advantageous to maintain missiles with a reduced payload ready for use.

However, even this approach has limits. At any given time, one of France's four submarines is undergoing maintenance. This significantly restricts operational flexibility.

Taken together, these constraints suggest that France could realistically add only a few dozen additional warheads in the coming years. With the current arsenal estimated at roughly 300 warheads, including both sea- and air-based weapons, the near-term increase would likely amount to two or three dozen at most.

In the longer term, however, France plans to introduce a new generation of delivery systems that could allow a more substantial expansion.

Macron referenced these future capabilities during his speech. He mentioned the first submarine of a new class, previously known as SNLE-3G, which will be named L'Invincible. According to current plans, it will enter service in 2036.

New air-launched weapons are also under development. The ASN4G hypersonic missile program aims to produce a next-generation air-to-surface nuclear weapon. These missiles are expected to appear several years earlier than the new submarines.

Initially they will be carried by upgraded versions of the Rafale fighter jet. Later they are expected to be integrated into Western Europe's future generation of combat aircraft.

Macron also addressed the widely discussed topic of nuclear cooperation with his European allies. Yet the speech contained no dramatic announcement about extending France's nuclear umbrella to other EU states. Nor did it include plans to permanently deploy French nuclear weapons abroad, in the way the United States stations nuclear bombs in several NATO countries or Russia has recently deployed weapons in Belarus.

Instead, Macron relied on the familiar language of French nuclear doctrine, elegant but deliberately vague phrases such as a "transition to advanced deterrence."

The details that were provided suggest a far more cautious approach. France does not intend to offer explicit guarantees or clearly defined "red lines." The logic is straightforward: once clear boundaries are drawn, an adversary will simply operate up to those limits.

In practical terms, Paris plans to begin by inviting representatives of other European countries to observe nuclear exercises. British observers have already taken part in similar activities, and cooperation with the United Kingdom has long existed through separate bilateral channels.

Once working groups complete their initial consultations, new formats for joint exercises may be developed.

Looking further ahead, France intends to prepare the infrastructure necessary for the rapid dispersal and forward deployment of its airborne nuclear forces across Europe during a crisis. This would involve identifying air bases on allied territory and determining how French nuclear units would operate alongside local forces.

Germany is considered the primary partner in this effort. Other countries mentioned include Poland, the Netherlands, Belgium, Greece, Sweden and Denmark.

A joint statement issued with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz confirms that Germany will participate in French nuclear exercises this year. German fighter jets are expected to practice escorting French Rafale aircraft during these drills.

Additional measures could include the deployment of air and missile defense systems designed to protect French nuclear forces while operating abroad. Paris has also proposed developing a joint missile-attack warning system, likely relying heavily on French technology.

Whether these plans will materialize remains uncertain. In essence, France is proposing something loosely resembling NATO's nuclear sharing arrangements, albeit on a smaller scale and with a stronger emphasis on advanced technology.

Macron has emphasized that these initiatives are not intended to replace NATO's existing, and largely American, nuclear guarantees. Washington has been kept informed of the discussions, though a negative reaction from the United States would hardly be surprising.

As Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov noted this week, the very fact that France and Germany are discussing nuclear cooperation shows that negotiations on strategic stability can no longer be conducted solely between Moscow and Washington.

The geographical expansion of Western nuclear infrastructure across Europe - particularly to countries such as Sweden, Denmark and Poland - will inevitably raise concerns in Moscow. These regions lie much closer to Russia's borders than the locations where American nuclear bombs were previously deployed.

There is, however, one mitigating factor. Large-scale pan-European military projects have a long history of ambitious announcements, and a shorter history of successful implementation.

For now, France's nuclear ambitions appear to fall into that familiar category.

This article was first published inKommersant, and was translated and edited by the RT team.

(RT.com)