Remarks by German ChancellorFriedrich Merzon allowing Ukraine to fire Western-supplied missiles at military targets deep inside Russia have rekindled debate about supplyingTaurus cruise missilesto Kyiv amid German media reports that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy would visit Berlin on May 28.

Ukraine has long requested the German-Swedish weapons system, which can deliver a heavy payload with high precision on targets some 500 kilometers away.

Germany is the second-largest supplier of military aid to Ukraine after the United States. Yet Merzs predecessor, Olaf Scholz, declined to supply Taurus missiles amid Kremlin threats that it would make Berlin a party to the war.

German dithering under Scholz handed Russia an operational advantage and allowed them to adapt their defenses and tactics, John Foreman, a former British military attache in Moscow and Kyiv, told RFE/RL.

Adding belatedly another string to Ukraines bow would be good. But Im unconvinced it will change the trajectory of the war, he added.

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What Long-Range Missiles Does Ukraine Have?

Since Russias full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Western countries have provided Kyiv with a variety of weapons capable of hitting targets far behind Russian lines.

The UK and France have supplied Storm Shadow/Scalp cruise missiles, which have a range of about 250 kilometers, while Washington has sent its Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) with a range of some 300 kilometers.

These weapons were originally supplied with theprovisothat they would only be used on targets in Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory.

But in November last year then-President Joe Biden's administrationsaidUkraine could use ATACMS in Russias Kursk region, where its forces were fighting to hold a small chunk of Russian territory.

Shortly afterward there were reported uses of Storm Shadow/Scalp within Russia. Merz now appears to have commented on these developments.

The countries that imposed range restrictions have long since abandoned these conditions, he said on May 27.

Ukraine has the right to use the weapons it receives -- including to use them beyond its own national borders against military targets on Russian territory.

The remarks clarified a statement during a TV interview the previous day, which implied that this was a new policy as well as sparking renewed speculation about Germany supplying Ukraine with Taurus missiles.

A Storm Shadow/Scalp missile at the Paris Air Show in June 2023.

The main issue is that our partners provide us with the means to strike, both Scalps and the German Taurus. If they do it will help us quite a bit, Ukrainian lawmaker Roman Kostenko toldRFE/RLs Ukrainian Service.

Roman Svitan, a Ukrainian military analyst, took a similar line in comments to RFE/RLs Russian Service.

First, one should provide those missiles and then grant permission to use them wherever. Ukraine has no such Western missiles left. We have nothing to fire, he said.

Not A Game-Changer

Foreman, the UK military attache, warned that the Taurus system would not be a game-changer.

Russia has adapted considerably over the last three years, in particular by dispersing its forces, changing its tactics, and improving its kinetic and nonkinetic defenses, he said.

These steps have reduced (but not removed) vulnerability to Ukrainian missile strikes in the Russian rear areas. A few missile strikes by Taurus wont affect this dramatically.

Still, getting an announcement could boost Ukrainian morale and would give Zelenskyy a political victory. Merzs comments drew a negative response from Moscow.

"These potential decisions, if they have been made, are completely at odds with our aspirations for a political settlement," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

These are "quite dangerous decisions," he added.

There was no immediate official response from London, Paris, or Washington, a silence that aligns with a strategy Berlin has dubbed strategic ambiguity. Broadly speaking, it means not telegraphing military strategy to Moscow. And its something of a departure for Merz.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in Turku, Finland, on May 27,.

Merz's Changing Views On Taurus

Merz views on Taurus have changed over time. While in opposition, he fiercely criticized what he saw as the German governments timidity over support for Ukraine - and demanded openness on military supplies.

In November 2023, he submitted a motion in parliament calling for finally, without delay, satisfying the Ukrainian request for Taurus cruise missiles. The motion was defeated.

By October last year, Merzs position had morphed. In a parliamentary debate, he said the government should give Moscow an ultimatum: either stop attacking civilian targets in Ukraine, or Germany will supply the Taurus.

In his comments on May 26, he did not mention Taurus but may have hinted at it.

We will do everything we can to support Ukraine. This means no more range restrictions for weapons we supply, he wrote on social media.

Yet he may not be speaking about Taurus missiles. Germany has also provided Ukraine with Mars II rocket launchers, which have a range of some 85 kilometers.

There are obvious military reasons for strategic ambiguity but also political ones. Merzs coalition partners, the Social Democrats, have opposed supplying Taurus, and opinion polls show it is deeply unpopular with the German public.

It has been suggested that, for this reason, Merz is no longer so keen on the idea and may now be inclined to instead help Ukraine develop its own long-range capabilities.

In any case, it could be that the first the world hears about Taurus missiles being supplied to Ukraine will be if and when they are fired.